Now that spring training has finally arrived, the Twins will have several questions to answer before they begin the defense of their AL Central title. Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman take a look at 10 key questions facing the Twins between now and Opening Day.
How many plate appearances will Luis Arraez get this season?
Aaron: Arraez moving from second base to the super-utility role is good for many things — his knees, the infield defense and the Twins’ depth — but it could be bad news for watching Arraez hit as many times as possible. Marwin González started 72 percent of the Twins’ games the past two seasons, and similar playing time for Arraez would equal about 480 plate appearances. He deserves more, and even matching González’s totals may be tough given that Arraez is less of an outfield/first-base option than González, who signed with the Red Sox. Of course, if Arraez starts “only” 115 games, that means the infield was very healthy, and that would ultimately be the best news for the team. I’ll set an over/under for Arraez at 475 PA and hope Rocco Baldelli can find a path to the over.
Advertisem*nt
Dan: Is there anything better than watching Arraez take a close pitch and shake his head knowingly when it misses for a ball? It’s hard to find someone who offers more entertainment while standing in. His quick hands and bat allow Arraez to catch up with fastballs, and his discerning eye helps him lay off close pitches. Arraez’s confidence and ability have been critical to the Twins over the past two seasons, as he’s produced a career .331/.390/.429 slash line in 636 trips to the plate. The reduction in plate appearances that will almost certainly occur now that Andrelton Simmons is here is concerning because Arraez always has been a tough, grinder at-bat in between all the power guys. Even so, González’s numbers offer a good baseline for what we can expect to see. If Arraez stands in 475 times, the Twins will be just fine.
How will Jorge Polanco adapt again to playing second base?
Aaron: Polanco deserves credit for making the best of a difficult situation at shortstop. He never had the skill set to thrive there, lacking range and arm strength, yet Polanco managed to be below average rather than terrible, thanks in large part to aggressive positioning by coaches. He’ll be far better suited for second base, where arm strength is a bonus and quickness is key. It’ll take some time for him to readjust, but I think Polanco will eventually be solidly above average at second base.
Dan: Though it has been five years since he regularly played at second base, the Twins are quite optimistic Polanco can make the switch back from shortstop. There may be a few hiccups along the way, but the Twins expect to be much better off defensively when Polanco readjusts. Dating to his minor-league days and including winter ball, Polanco has logged 802 games at shortstop, with 311 played at second base. Interestingly, any time Polanco plays in the Dominican Winter League, he’s been a second baseman, appearing there 116 times while playing shortstop only three times. It’s a fair bet to say Polanco can be a good defender on the right side and the Twins will be better for it.
Will Alex Kirilloff be on the Opening Day roster?
Aaron: If the season were, say, 20 games long, Kirilloff would be the Opening Day left fielder. He’s one of the Twins’ three best outfielders and he’s ready to hit big-league pitching. However, service time always plays an outsized factor in these discussions because MLB’s rules give teams incentives to hold back prospects to delay their eventual free agency. By waiting even three weeks to call up Kirilloff, the Twins can keep him for an entire extra season down the road. That’s tough math to go against, which is why my assumption is he’ll start the year with Triple-A St. Paul and the Twins will keep left field warm with Arraez, Jake Cave and Brent Rooker.
Advertisem*nt
Dan: No, and I don’t have a problem with a team gaming the system in its favor to hang on to a talented player longer. Yes, it seems pretty messed up to hold a player down in the minors for 20 days to keep him around for an additional year of service time. But that’s the system that is in place, and almost every team does this unless they’re able to sign their prospect to a long-term contract before he debuts. Don’t see that happening with Kirilloff and his agent, Scott Boras. But, if the agents and Major League Baseball Players’ Association really care about this issue, they’ll have a very good chance to fix it in the next round of labor negotiations after this season.
Who will be the Twins’ fifth starter?
Aaron: This question was much tougher before they signed Matt Shoemaker. He’s clearly the favorite to claim the final rotation spot, with Randy Dobnak heading to the bullpen or Triple A, along with Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. I’d expect Shoemaker to begin the season as the fifth starter, but given Shoemaker’s lengthy injury history, I’d put close to even odds on Dobnak starting more games for the Twins by season’s end.
Dan: Aaron always hogs the good answer. It’s like the little kid at the water fountain ahead of you in grade school. Hey, man, save some for the whales. Anyway, I’ll say that Shoemaker begins as the team’s No. 5 starter and that Dobnak winds up making more starts overall. The Twins like Shoemaker’s splitter a lot, and it’s good when it’s on. But he’s been healthy enough to make only 32 starts over the past four years, hence the $2 million contract.
Is this the year Lewis Thorpe takes a step forward?
Aaron: As of Monday morning, I thought Thorpe was out of minor-league options and nearing the end of his time with the Twins unless they included him on the Opening Day roster coming off an awful season. However, a Twins source now tells me Thorpe has been given a rare fourth minor-league option by MLB because of development time missed with injuries in the minors, which means he can be safely stashed at Triple A or go back and forth from the minors to the majors all season. Now that they have another year to determine if Thorpe is part of the future, my guess is he pitches more innings for the Saints than for the Twins in 2021.
Dan: A few years ago when I had a discussion about Thorpe with a Twins staffer, who made a comment that the left-hander would be the one who determined how far he goes with the organization. Though his fastball velo was hit-and-miss last season, the Twins have always believed in Thorpe’s stuff, and it’s why he’s remained in the mix for several years despite middling results. But with only one option year remaining, Thorpe clearly needs to take advantage of what potentially could be his last go-around with the Twins.
(Bruce Kluckhohn / USA Today)
How will the Twins divide the playing time at catcher?
Aaron: Baldelli said last week that his focus is on finding “some sort of a catcher rotation” that will enable the Twins “to get both of these guys in the lineup regularly, keep them rested and play a full season.” He also made it clear that he doesn’t view one catcher starting five or six times per week as realistic, or smart. All of which points to a time-share between Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, lining them up for around 300 plate appearances apiece. If I’m Baldelli, I try to pad their totals with occasional starts at first base. I suspect Jeffers will be the main catcher by the second half, but Garver can easily prove that wrong by hitting anywhere near as well as he did in 2019.
Advertisem*nt
Dan: As they are with several other players, the Twins are taking into account the strange nature of the 2020 season when it comes to Garver’s poor production. Perhaps it was the lack of energy in the ballpark, but Garver never found a rhythm at the plate and struggled all season. The guess here is that Garver rediscovers his bat in 2021, which would result in his finishing the season with more at-bats than Jeffers. But even when he was in peak form, Garver still wound up with only 359 plate appearances in 2019 compared with Jason Castro’s 275. Look for something similar between Garver and Jeffers in 2021.
Do the Twins have enough pitching depth?
Aaron: You can never have enough pitching, especially coming off a year when everyone got less than half of their usual workload. With that said, the Twins have eight starters on the 40-man roster with at least some MLB experience, five of them established veterans. And they go six or seven deep in quality relievers, with several other intriguing options waiting for their shot in the bullpen. It’s all relative, and compared with teams around baseball overall, the Twins have enviable pitching depth, in terms of both quality and quantity. And they have some high-upside prospects who could be knocking on the door to the majors by midseason, too.
Dan: One of the quieter aspects of the Twins’ late offseason additions has been the way they’ve accumulated potential relief depth over the past two weeks. Starting with the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to San Francisco in exchange for Shaun Anderson, the Twins added three more potential bullpen arms to help cover the workload this season. By timing the waiver system properly, the Twins were able to remove left-hander Brandon Waddell, who’d been claimed earlier this offseason, off the 40-man. Once Waddell cleared waivers, the Twins made him a non-roster invitee to spring training. They also did the same with right-hander Ian Hamilton, whom they recently claimed off waivers only to put him back on waivers in hopes he’d clear them. He did, and he will also be a non-roster invitee to big league camp. These moves aren’t sexy, but they are pertinent to a team’s success in producing pitchers who can get guys out in the big leagues.
Which under-the-radar candidate will emerge to win a bullpen job?
Aaron: I’ve been assuming the final bullpen spot will go to a long man like Dobnak or Smeltzer or Thorpe. Of course, that assumes the Twins split the 26-man roster evenly with pitchers and hitters. If instead they go with 14 arms, at least early on, that leaves room for a long man as well as an under-the-radar option with some upside, similar to Matt Wisler last year. I’ll take Anderson for this year’s version. Mid-90s fastball and a plus slider is their type, and he has late-inning upside.
Dan: Let’s throw a handful of the other names out there because, once again, Aaron steals my thunder and goes for the layup by taking Anderson. He did this because Aaron is a cruel person who probably kicks puppies and trips small children. Just an evil, evil man. Anderson has great stuff, and the Twins are excited. But they also are intrigued by former Kansas City Royals pitcher Glenn Sparkman, who features a fastball-slider combo, and Derek Law, who posted a 2.13 ERA in 55 innings for San Francisco in 2016. Both are NRIs. They’d also love to help Hamilton rediscover the velocity he lost in 2019 after a minor car accident. All told, the Twins have at least six or seven potential lottery tickets who could turn into the next Wisler or Ryne Harper.
How will minor leaguers perform after a year off from live action?
Aaron: Having just finished my Twins top 40 prospects mega-article, I’ve been fascinated by this question. Can minor leaguers pick up where they left off in 2019, or will the missed game reps cause many prospects to fall short of their potential? It’s particularly crucial for the Twins because the majority of their top prospects are either ready for the majors or very close — except what does “ready for the majors” mean when they haven’t played an official game in 18 months? It’ll be a huge test for the coaching and player development staff, and for the work the players put in behind the scenes.
Dan: Last year was Alex Hassan’s first year as the Twins farm director. Hell of a year to take over the farm system, and the Twins tried everything to keep their minor-leaguers going. Hassan and Twins assistant general manager Jeremy Zoll think the organization learned some techniques from distanced instruction they can take forward and are optimistic about this season, which is an important one for the Twins from a potential acquisition aspect, too. With no games being played last year, the Twins had no chance to showcase their farmhands before the trade deadline, and that limited their ability to make substantial deals last season, not that they were necessarily looking. Given their system is founded on depth more than it is surefire stars, the Twins will benefit from other organizations being able to extensively scout their entire system.
Advertisem*nt
Are the Twins favorites to win the AL Central?
Aaron: Depends whom you ask. Most betting lines I’ve seen have the White Sox as favorites. However, the two most prominent places for projections, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, both have the Twins three-peating as division champs. In fact, Baseball Prospectus has Cleveland, not Chicago, in second place, with the Twins five games clear of both. FanGraphs sees Minnesota just one game ahead of Chicago, with Cleveland far back with a .500 record. So much of it depends on the health of the Twins’ hitters and the development of the White Sox’s young talent. I’d call it a toss-up, and I’d expect both Minnesota and Chicago to be in the AL’s five-team playoff field.
Dan: Betting lines are heavily dependent on the people placing wagers, and it would seem every Sox fan is racing to the online bookie to drop money on the South Siders. That’s fine. The White Sox are a really fun, talented team with an offense that has the potential to be even better than the Bomba Squad was in 2019. But the Twins have fewer questions to answer as they head into the season, particularly in the back end of the rotation. If the Sox can answer those, look out. I like how the Twins found a substantial way to improve themselves by bringing in Simmons, a move they believe could add an additional 1-2 wins above replacement via better defense. I’m picking the Twins, but it should be a hell of a race.
(Photo of Kirilloff: David Dermer / USA Today)
